Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity: Case Studies from Developing Nations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63876/ijtm.v2i2.122Keywords:
Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, Developing Nations, Crop Modelling, Climate-Smart AgricultureAbstract
Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity, particularly in developing nations where agriculture remains a primary livelihood source. This study presents a comprehensive modelling approach to assess the impact of climate variability on agricultural output, with a focus on case studies from India. Using a combination of climate projection data, crop simulation models, and econometric analyses, the research evaluates changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events, and their implications for key staple crops such as rice and wheat. The study highlights regional disparities in vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and yield outcomes across different agro-climatic zones in India. Results indicate that without effective adaptation strategies, agricultural productivity could decline significantly in the coming decades, exacerbating food insecurity and rural poverty. The findings underscore the urgency of integrating climate resilience into national agricultural policies and promoting climate-smart agricultural practices. This research contributes to a broader understanding of how climate change affects agriculture in developing contexts and offers a methodological framework applicable to other regions facing similar challenges.
Downloads
References
M. Mujtaba et al., “Lignocellulosic biomass from agricultural waste to the circular economy: a review with focus on biofuels, biocomposites and bioplastics,” J. Clean. Prod., vol. 402, p. 136815, May 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136815.
A. A. Oloyede, N. Faruk, N. Noma, E. Tebepah, and A. K. Nwaulune, “Measuring the impact of the digital economy in developing countries: A systematic review and meta- analysis,” Heliyon, vol. 9, no. 7, p. e17654, Jul. 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17654.
R. K. Srivastava et al., “Biorefineries development from agricultural byproducts: Value addition and circular bioeconomy,” Sustain. Chem. Pharm., vol. 32, p. 100970, May 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scp.2023.100970.
M. Li et al., “Multi-layer multi-objective cooperative regulation of agricultural water resources in large agricultural irrigation areas based on runoff prediction,” Comput. Electron. Agric., vol. 208, p. 107761, May 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2023.107761.
C. M. Musafiri et al., “Farming systems’ typologies analysis to inform agricultural greenhouse gas emissions potential from smallholder rain-fed farms in Kenya,” Sci. African, vol. 8, p. e00458, Jul. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00458.
V. Sharma, R. Sharma, R. S. Aulakh, P. Kaur, and B. B. Singh, “Prevalence and risk factor investigation for exposure to Brucella species in surrogate stray cattle population reared in cow shelters in Punjab, India,” Prev. Vet. Med., vol. 219, p. 106023, Oct. 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106023.
S. Patnaik and B. Biswal, “Importance of nutrient loading and irrigation in gross primary productivity trends in India,” J. Hydrol., vol. 588, p. 125047, Sep. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125047.
K. Kapri and S. Ghimire, “Migration, remittance, and agricultural productivity: Evidence from the Nepal Living Standard Survey,” World Dev. Perspect., vol. 19, p. 100198, Sep. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100198.
S. A. Patel and R. P. Chhabra, “Buoyancy-assisted flow of yield stress fluids past a cylinder: Effect of shape and channel confinement,” Appl. Math. Model., vol. 75, pp. 892–915, Nov. 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2019.07.005.
S. Mohapatra, B. Sharp, A. K. Sahoo, and D. Sahoo, “Decomposition of climate-induced productivity growth in Indian agriculture,” Environ. Challenges, vol. 7, p. 100494, Apr. 2022, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100494.
T. Thomas, N. C. Ghosh, and K. P. Sudheer, “Optimal reservoir operation – A climate change adaptation strategy for Narmada basin in central India,” J. Hydrol., vol. 598, p. 126238, Jul. 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126238.
G. Mathews et al., “First approach to the characterization of the ecological succession on perforated trapezoidal multi-purpose reef modules: Building climate resilience,” Ocean Coast. Manag., vol. 210, p. 105669, Sep. 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105669.
Y. Lu et al., “Assessment of global drought propensity and its impacts on agricultural water use in future climate scenarios,” Agric. For. Meteorol., vol. 278, p. 107623, Nov. 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107623.
K. P. Devkota et al., “Land gradient and configuration effects on yield, irrigation amount and irrigation water productivity in rice-wheat and maize-wheat cropping systems in Eastern India,” Agric. Water Manag., vol. 255, p. 107036, Sep. 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107036.
P. K. Aggarwal, N. Kalra, S. Chander, and H. Pathak, “InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description,” Agric. Syst., vol. 89, no. 1, pp. 1–25, Jul. 2006, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2005.08.001.
S. Sarkar, S. S. Maity, and R. Maity, “Precipitation-based climate change hotspots across India through a Multi-model assessment from CMIP6,” J. Hydrol., vol. 623, p. 129805, Aug. 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129805.
D. Liu, A. K. Mishra, and D. K. Ray, “Sensitivity of global major crop yields to climate variables: A non-parametric elasticity analysis,” Sci. Total Environ., vol. 748, p. 141431, Dec. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141431.
O. A. Chukwu and C. C. Nnogo, “Surmounting inherent challenges in healthcare service delivery for effective procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines; A developing country context,” Heal. Policy Technol., vol. 10, no. 2, p. 100518, Jun. 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hlpt.2021.100518.
M. Faling, “Framing agriculture and climate in Kenyan policies: a longitudinal perspective,” Environ. Sci. Policy, vol. 106, pp. 228–239, Apr. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.01.014.
S. Schneiderbauer et al., “Risk perception of climate change and natural hazards in global mountain regions: A critical review,” Sci. Total Environ., vol. 784, p. 146957, Aug. 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146957.
